CBOE Volatility Index CBOE Futures Exchange to roll out mini-VIX futures

The CBOE Futures Exchange, a subsidiary of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, said on Wednesday it plans to offer a new product tied to the so-called VIX .VIX, Wall Street's favorite barometer of investor fear.

Trading in CBOE mini-VIX futures, a contract which will be one-tenth the size of the standard CBOE VIX futures contract, will debut on Monday, the CFE said.
CBOE, the largest U.S. options exchange, offers volatility benchmarks based on a variety of major stock indexes and CFE lists four volatility futures contracts with the VIX futures being the most active.
The popular VIX is based on real-time Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX options and reflects investors' consensus view of future expected market volatility of the S&P benchmark.
CFE said the smaller VIX futures contract with lower margins may be more manageable for a variety of users.

It is expected to attract sophisticated investors and institutions "who are looking for a smaller-scale play on implied volatility that's independent of the direction and level of stock prices," said CFE Managing Director Andrew Lowenthal in a statement.
The contract can also be used as a "way to hedge equity returns, diversify portfolios, and spread implied against realized volatility," he said.
Traders in VIX options, which are priced off VIX futures, are expected to benefit because they can now hedge with a like-sized futures contract, said David Graff, senior trader at Wolverine Trading, a firm that will be making markets when trading begins.
The new cash-settled CBOE mini-VIX futures contract .VM initially will list March, April and May serial futures months, which coincide with CBOE's S&P 500 nearby options months.


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Credit crunch squeezes factories

Seven out of 10 small- and medium-sized factories are struggling to survive as a result of the credit crunch, according to the Israel Manufacturers Association.
"We are talking about 1,400 small- and medium-sized factories employing between 20 to 100 workers," Oren Harambam, head of the association's business economics division, said Wednesday.
According to the association's estimate, a credit shortage of NIS 700 million was causing the factories problems, Harambam said.
"If the credit was available to small- and medium-sized factories, it would minimize the wave of layoffs and collapse of factories, while helping hundreds of factories to overcome this crisis in better shape," he said.
Harambam said the association would hold a special meeting on Monday in Tel Aviv that will focus on financing solutions for small- and medium-sized factories.
According to the association, 17 factories were closed or broken up in 2008, including six in hi-tech, five in the textile industry and two in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sector. Some 2,000 factories are members of the association.

On Tuesday, Vita Pri-Hagalil, the Hatzor Haglilit food company facing the threat of liquidation, was granted a temporary reprieve of a week by the Haifa District Court. The court ordered all proceedings to be frozen until March 1 in an attempt to prevent the factory's closure. The court will reconvene on March 5 to see if an alternative solution has been found.
"The Vita Pri-Hagalil fruit plant in Hatzor Haglilit is not the only one," Histadrut chairman Ofer Eini told Army Radio on Wednesday. "I cannot give names, but there are other factories in the periphery that are on the verge of economic collapse and mass layoffs. It's no longer just about the Vita Pri-Hagalil factory; it's a national issue about factories in towns in the periphery."
The Histadrut was in talks with factories at risk of collapse, Eini said.

"The government has a moral duty," he said. "The situation of employees in the periphery must be taken care of. The workers are the only ones paying the price. I call upon the finance minister and the prime minister to do everything necessary to avert the closure of factories. This is a national issue; if the factory shuts tomorrow, the workers have no alternative."
Eini is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu on Thursday in Tel Aviv. Netanyahu has promised to develop a plan to avert the closure of factories under threat in the periphery.


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Earnings Forecasts Forecast rebound in earnings premature, say strategists

Despite an aggressive paring of earnings and dividend expectations for fiscal 2009, which ends this June 30, strategists say expectations for fiscal 2010 will have to be downgraded because of the top-down impact of the global economic crisis and looming domestic recession.

“The analytical world is working out that its forecast second-half (of 2009) earnings rebound is premature,” says Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken. “We expect to see solid consensus downgrades to 2009 and 2010 earnings estimates over the next few weeks.”
Two years into the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression, the macro-economic environment is having an over-riding influence on the corporate landscape.
Australia's economy, which many thought could ride out the worst of the economic storm, has deteriorated quickly in recent months.

Mr Aitke says most analysts haven't experienced anything like this.
“The speed of deterioration is unprecedented and that is seeing analyst forecasts lag the reality of the earnings and margins decline,” he says.
Traditional equities analysts rely heavily on what companies say. But companies have been in most cases unable to predict the severity of the current financial and economic crisis.
Indeed, in the current earnings season, which is drawing to a close, many companies have said that the outlook is too uncertain for them to provide guidance on future earnings.
Strategists, on the other hand, have looked at the impact of past recessions on aggregate earnings and dividends - although there are precious few comparisons to the current period.

Macquarie Private Wealth associate director David Halliday expects equities to remain under pressure because, from a top-down perspective, it is hard to forecast any significant expansion in margins, or growth in earnings and dividends while the economy continues to weaken.
Macquarie strategists say the aggregate market forecast of its analysts implies fiscal 2010 market earnings per share growth of 1 per cent, representing a “hockey stick” turnaround from the implied fiscal 2009 forecast of an 8 per cent fall in EPS.
But the forecast of a turnaround, based on improved margins in 2010, is “a heroic assumption given the severity of the global recession”, the strategists say.
“There remains some distance to travel before bottom-up EPS growth forecasts resemble the typical recession profile of minus-20 per cent EPS growth for two years running,” they say.
Macquarie strategists say stabilisation of EPS growth forecasts will be critical for any sustained recovery in the overall market, yet they see a high risk of EPS forecast downgrades.
Citi strategists say Australia is “currently experiencing the weakest period of earnings revisions (by analysts) on record”.
Earnings downgrades are outnumbering upgrades by a ratio of more than 5 to 1, they say.

Citi analysts’ bottom-up forecasts imply average EPS growth in 2009/10 of around 1 per cent. But their strategists don't believe a 2010 recovery in earnings fits with their macroeconomic view.
“We are of the more bearish view that there will be no V-shaped economic recovery and that GDP growth will remain sub-trend for a least another two years,” says Citi. “By ruling out the possibility of a V-shaped economic recovery, it follows that the earnings profile for equities also needs to be pushed out longer and flatter.”
Citi lists 36 major companies where it feels caution is warranted because of a consensus for earnings growth that appears high relative to what it believes the operating environment will allow.
Aside from earnings, the other main trend has been dividend cuts and capital raisings as companies move to shore up their balance sheets.
Macquarie's analysts have witnessed 37 negative versus 15 positive dividend surprises so far this earnings period.
Mr Aitken says he has no faith in prospective dividend yields as companies move to protect their balance sheets by raising equity and cutting dividends.
“In a deteriorating global and domestic economy, we believe broker GDP estimates are too optimistic.”
Aitken says “high prospective yield equals high risk”.

In other words, prospective yields are high because share prices are under pressure, the implication being that high yields might not compensate for capital risk.
Furthermore, he believes bank dividend yields, which contribute a big portion of the overall market's dividend yield, are under “serious threat”.
ANZ today became the first of the country's four major banks to forecast a fall in dividends, which it said could drop by around 25 per cent this fiscal year.
“The Australian economy has only just entered a major downturn, and probably a recession, and if history is any guide, dividends will be cut sharply across the board as (companies) hoard cash,” says Aitken. “I believe the current prospective market dividend yield is a mirage.”


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Brown-paper package or black box?

Unccovering the hidden costs of bail-out and stimulus packages.

THE recent announcement of the Federal Government's $42 billion stimulus package has prompted a lot of questions. Will it do the job? Does it have the right mix of measures? Is it big enough? Is it too big? Why have some groups missed out? And how will it be funded? Yet, the issue of the total cost of this and other support packages announced over the past four months has received scant media attention.

Many of the costs of government interventions go unstated, some by design, some not. When governments announce special packages, such as the $10.4 billion October Economic Security Strategy, the $4 billion November Australian Business Investment Partnership (to support major commercial property projects), the December $2 billion Car Dealer Financing package (to provide wholesale floor-plan financing to car dealerships), the February $42 billion Nation Building and Jobs Plan — to which I would add the $34 million child-care centre support package and the $6.2 billion New Car Plan — what they identify is the headline cost.

Six further categories of cost are associated with such packages:

■Delivery/implementation costs.
■Compliance costs.
■Costs of loans/loan guarantees.
■Opportunity costs.
■Government failure costs.
■The cost of moral hazard.

Delivery and compliance costs occur with all packages but will usually be minimal for broad-based tax and expenditure packages because the delivery mechanisms are already in place. But for
bail-outs, these costs involve the establishment of new program guidelines, the costs of assessing applicants, and then the costs of program monitoring. These can be resource intensive, especially where the form of help is loans or loan guarantees and the monitoring of companies in a fragile financial position is required.
Harder to identify because their link to subsequent expenditure is more tenuous are the costs associated with loans and loan guarantees. These may affect the credit rating of the government and impose higher future borrowing costs both on the government and on the private sector through crowding-out.
A major category of unstated
cost — and the cost that politicians like talking about least — are opportunity costs. Every dollar a government spends must be raised by taxes or borrowed from an owner who would have otherwise spent or saved it.

The main justification for doing this in regard to the stimulus packages is that the Government will spend more quickly than the owners of the funds would otherwise have done. In the case of bail-outs the justification must be to offset some form of failure in markets (for example, lack of availability of credit for "worthwhile" activities).
The extent of the positive impact the Government expects from the two stimulus packages seems to be limited to 75,000 jobs "protected" for the first package, and 90,000 "supported" for the second. Prospective benefits for the various bail-out packages have not been identified, with the exception of the $4 billion support package for commercial property projects, without which "up to 50,000 jobs out of 150,000 could be lost".
Unfortunately for governments, the projected economic impacts do not always come about. This may happen because the government's model is flawed or the assumptions behind the model are inappropriate. Or it may be because the government's perception of what is happening is mistaken — ranging from what exactly the problem is to how bad it is.


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To withdraw funds from your account Please make sure that you have sufficient funds in place to cover the the necessary margin required for your open positions, after your requested withdrawal.

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UPM Kymmene UPDATE 1-UPM-Kymmene to sell 3 pct of forests

To offload 30,000 hectares in Finland

* Rough estimate of value is 60-90 million euros * Says aims to boost wood supply

By John Acher

HELSINKI, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Finnish papermaker UPM-Kymmene (UPM1V.HE) on Wednesday put up for sale a small chunk of its vast forest holdings in Finland in what it said was a move to boost smaller-scale owners and improve wood supply.
Fragmentation of ownership - the average Finnish holding is fewer than 30 hectares - hampers management of forests and the company hopes creating bigger entities will lift activity.
"We want to have an impact on the ownership situation and try to establish some kind of business-based large-scale forestry in Finland," Sixten Sunabacka, head of UPM's forest operations in Northern Europe, told Reuters.
"It is important for us to have a stable wood flow in the future, and if we reach those who have big forestlands already, we can have a more secure wood supply," Sunabacka said.
The planned sale of 30,000 hectares (74,130 acres) - in chunks of 1,000-5,000 hectares per buyer - amounts to 3 percent of UPM-Kymmene's more than one million hectares of forest.

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Safety of funds plays an important role in any type of business; we make our best efforts to ensure protection of customers’ money.

Minimum deposit required for funding new accounts:
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ACHIEVEMENTS

A lot has been achieved in SADC since its inception in April 1980 in Lusaka, Zambia. Some of the foremost achievements of SADC have been:

• to demonstrate that regional co-operation is NOT only desirable but possible;
• to inculcate a sense of regional belonging as well as a tradition of consultation among the people and governments of Southern Africa
• to put in place a regional programme of action - the SADC Programme of Action - which covers cooperation in various economic sectors.
• Under the SADC Programme of Action a number of infrastructural projects have been undertaken to rehabilitate roads, railway lines and harbours as well as the development through research of a number of seed various to cater for the different climatic conditions of the SADC Region.
These hard-earned achievements have provided a firm foundation without which any attempt at building a regional development community would have definitely failed.


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THE SADC PROGRAMME OF ACTION -SPA

The SPA is a totality of Sectoral Programmes, with their policy objectives, strategies and projects designed to realise the overall goals and objectives of SADC. The SPA has evolved over time in line with the priorities and challenges facing the organisation.
The number of projects under the SPA now stands at 407 with an estimated cost of US$8.09 billion. Approximately 90 per cent of this amount is from external sources and close to 50 per cent has already been secured.
Under the SPA, several protocols have been developed and signed in the areas of Shared Water Course Systems, Energy, Combating Illicit Drug Trafficking, Transport, Communication and Meteorology, Trade, Education and Training, Mining, Immunities and Privileges, Health, Wildlife Conservation and Law Enforcement, Tribunal and Legal Affairs. Most of these have been ratified and are at various stages of implementation.

The Trade Protocol is critical for SADC's integration process and entered into force on the 25th of January, 2000 following its ratification by the required number of member States. The implementation of this protocol was launched on 1st September 2000.
In addition to these protocols, the Summit has signed a Declaration on Gender and Development. This declaration calls for the equal representation of women and men in the decision making of member states and SADC Structures at all levels, and the achievement of at least 30 per cent target of women in political and decision-making structures by the year 2005. In addition, a Declaration on Productivity which commits member States to increase productivity in order to meet global competetiveness challenges was signed in August 2000.


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INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

In deciding on the Conference's institutions, the Founding Fathers were particularly sensitive to the lessons and experiences of past attempts at regional co-operation in Africa, some of which had ended in dismal failure and bitter disappointment. Such failures were largely because sensitive issues of how best to equitably share the costs and benefits of regional co-operation had not been sufficiently addressed and agreed upon at both national and regional levels.
To avoid similar pitfalls, SADC from the very beginning placed particular emphasis on a decentralised institutional arrangement that would ensure that member States are the principal actors in the formulation and implementation of policy decisions.

However, under the new restructuring exercise, it has become clear that there are a number of problems that inhibit the efficient and effective performance of the current structure and these include:

• Inadequate provision of resources and staffing by member States which has led to inequitable distribution of responsibilities and obligations.
• Different management and administrative procedures and rules, varying standards, qualifications and performance criteria for staff involved in the management of the Regional Programme.
• Rapid increase of Sectors and therefore a plethora of priorities and activities dependent on limited resources which has led to a proliferation of meetings and an increase in associated costs.
• Under the current structure and circumstances, the Secretariat has been unable to execute its mandate as provided for in the Treaty, especially that of undertaking strategic planning and management.
• Lack of an institutional framework in which Ministers responsible for Foreign Affairs in the SADC region could discuss and adopt common positions on matters pertaining to the organization in various international fora.


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TRANSFORMATION FROM CONFERENCE TO COMMUNITY

This transformation occurred in August 1992, when the Heads of State and Government of the Southern African Development Co-ordination Conference met in Windhoek, Namibia, to sign a Declaration and Treaty establishing the new SADC - the Southern African Development Community.
The SADCC leaders had come to realise that although the co-ordination conference had served them well and had demonstrated the crucial need to cooperate in their development efforts, time had come to give the Organisation a legal and more formal status.
There was also a need to shift the focus of the organisation from co-ordination of development projects to a more complex task of integrating the economies of member States. Hence the Treaty, which is the blueprint for building a Community of Southern African states.

SADC and its member States are expected to act according to the following principles:

• Sovereign equality of all member States;
• Solidarity, peace and security;
• Human rights, democracy, and the rule of law;
• Equity, balance and mutual benefit;
• Peaceful settlement of disputes

The objectives of SADC are to:

• Achieve development and economic growth, alleviate poverty, enhance the standard and quality of life of the people of Southern Africa and support the socially disadvantaged through regional integration;
• Evolve common political values, systems and institutions;
• Promote and defend peace and security;
• Promote self-sustaining development on the basis of collective self-reliance, and the interdependence of Member States;
• Achieve complementarity between national and regional strategies and programmes;
• Promote and maximise productive employment and utilisation of resources of the Region;
• Achieve sustainable utilisation of natural resources and effective protection of the environment;
• Strengthen and consolidate the long standing historical, social and cultural affinities and links among the people of the Region.

The ultimate objective of SADC, the Community is, therefore, to build a Region in which there will be a high degree of harmonisation and rationalisation to enable the pooling of resources to achieve collective self-reliance in order to improve the living standards of the people of the region.

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China’s Economy Shows Signs of Recovery on Stimulus

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy is showing signs that a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is taking effect.

The world’s third-biggest economy may expand 6.6 percent in the second quarter after slowing to 6.3 percent in the three months to March 31, the weakest pace since 1999, according to the median estimates of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
China is trying to reverse an economic slide that has already cost 20 million jobs, raising the risk of social unrest as exports plunge and the property market sags. Spending on roads railways and housing has increased prices for iron ore, put a floor under industrial output and helped to drive a record $237 billion of new loans in January.

“China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global meltdown,” said Lu Ting, an economist with Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong. “China is the only economy in the world to see significant growth in credit to corporate and household sectors after September 2008, when the financial crisis worsened to a near collapse.”
The government’s stimulus plan, announced in November, is beginning to gather momentum. Projects such as the building of 3.5 billion yuan of public houses in Shaanxi province and Shanghai began in December, while Shandong province started work on three new railway lines the same month.
China is committing about 1.2 trillion yuan of central government funds to the plan, which means banks’ willingness to fund projects is crucial. So far they are responding.

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